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Bitcoin Under Pressure: US Economic Woes, Liquidations, and a Bearish Divergence

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Bitcoin Under Pressure: US Economic Woes, Liquidations, and a Bearish Divergence

Bitcoin Takes a Tumble Amidst US Economic Concerns

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable dip below $103,000 on May 19, fueled by a confluence of factors, primarily stemming from concerns about the US economy. The sell-off underscored the prevailing sentiment of uncertainty and risk aversion, as investors grapple with the implications of recent events.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView

Moody’s Downgrade and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

A key catalyst for Bitcoin’s downturn was Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16. This move, attributed to rising debt and deficits, injected a dose of macroeconomic uncertainty into the market. The downgrade further fueled concerns about inflation and potential tariff policies, creating a ripple effect across financial markets.

Increasing US Treasury Bills. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Increasing US Treasury Bills. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Class-Action Lawsuit Adds to Bitcoin Headwinds

Adding to the bearish pressure, Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, found itself facing a class-action lawsuit. Accusations of misleading statements regarding Bitcoin investments and a significant unrealized Q1 loss have cast a shadow over the company’s financial stability and its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Liquidations Signal Bearish Pressure

The sell-off was accompanied by significant liquidations in the derivatives market, further indicating bearish sentiment. Over $87 million in long Bitcoin positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with more than $43 million liquidated in the preceding 12 hours. This surge in liquidations signals a retreat by bullish traders and a shift towards a more cautious stance.

Total crypto liquidations. Source: CoinGlass
Total crypto liquidations. Source: CoinGlass
BTC futures open interest. Source: CoinGlass
BTC futures open interest. Source: CoinGlass

Bearish Divergence Raises Concerns

Adding to the bearish narrative, Bitcoin’s price action exhibited a growing bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI). The daily chart revealed that Bitcoin’s price moved higher between May 9 and May 19, forming higher highs. However, during the same period, its daily RSI descended, forming lower highs. This divergence often signals a weakening uptrend and can prompt traders to take profit.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView

Bitcoin’s Future: A Potential Correction

The confluence of these factors has sparked concerns about a potential correction in Bitcoin’s price. Analysts are closely watching the price action to assess its response to the recent downtrend. The outcome will depend on several factors, including the extent of the sell-off, the resolution of the concerns surrounding the US economy, and the overall market sentiment.

“Bigger Bitcoin correction has started?” questioned popular crypto analyst AlphaBTC in his latest analysis, suggesting a potential drop to $100,000 this week.

The cryptocurrency market remains a dynamic and volatile space, and the recent developments serve as a reminder of the inherent risks associated with digital assets. It’s crucial for investors to remain informed, conduct thorough research, and make decisions based on their own individual risk tolerance and investment goals.

James Reynolds
James Reynolds
James Reynolds is a legal analyst focusing on regulatory news and compliance within the cryptocurrency industry. His comprehensive coverage of legal developments helps businesses and investors navigate the evolving regulatory landscape.

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