Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Bitcoin Braces for Potential $104K ‘Rug Pull’: Is a Major Move Imminent?

Bitcoin price faces potential 'rug pull' scenario at $104,000 as analysts warn of impending volatility, with the US dollar's strength also potentially...

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Bitcoin Braces for Potential 4K ‘Rug Pull’: Is a Major Move Imminent?

Bitcoin‘s Price Under Pressure: A Rug Pull Looms?

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a period of heightened uncertainty, with analysts and traders closely monitoring potential downside risks. Recent price action saw Bitcoin dipping below $105,000, triggering warnings of a possible “rug pull” scenario, with a targeted price level of $104,000. This suggests a potential for significant price volatility, prompting caution among investors.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Order Book Analysis and Market Manipulation Concerns

The primary concern revolves around the dynamics within the Bitcoin order book. Trading resource Material Indicators pointed to apparent manipulation in the order book, highlighting shifting bid liquidity as the price faltered. This type of action, sometimes referred to as “spoofing”, can artificially influence price movement and potentially lead to significant losses for unsuspecting traders. If the price breaks below $105,000, the potential for a swift price decline to $104,000 is very real.

BTC/USDT order book liquidity data. Source: Material Indicators/X
BTC/USDT order book liquidity data. Source: Material Indicators/X

Market Sentiment and Bullish Resistance

Despite the bearish signals, some analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic perspective. Material Indicators suggested that a push above $108,000 could open the door to $110,000. This highlights the importance of key resistance levels. Furthermore, the market hasn’t fully panicked during this dip, which may suggest that the impending move has yet to fully materialize. The lack of aggressive shorting and spot selling thus far suggests a different, more volatile, landscape may soon develop.

The US Dollar and Macroeconomic Influences

The strength of the US dollar (DXY) adds another layer of complexity to the current market environment. The DXY index typically moves inversely to Bitcoin, and a recovery in the dollar could put further pressure on Bitcoin‘s price. This is particularly relevant given that the DXY is nearing a key support level and showing oversold conditions. The interplay between Bitcoin and the dollar is a critical factor in assessing the short-term price trajectory of BTC.

US dollar index (DXY) 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Guilherme Tavares/X
US dollar index (DXY) 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Guilherme Tavares/X

Geopolitical Factors and Gold’s Role

The recent Middle East conflict has not yet impacted Bitcoin or the broader market as significantly as some anticipated. The Kobeissi Letter stated the current geopolitical climate does not imply a global war. Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, has not experienced the typical significant gains during the ongoing attacks, suggesting markets are not overly concerned about the potential for a global conflict. The 10Y Yield remains around 4.50%, further signaling market stability.

XAU/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
XAU/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The Road Ahead for Bitcoin

The coming days will be crucial for Bitcoin. The $104,000 level will serve as a pivotal support, and the actions of large-volume traders and the broader macroeconomic landscape, particularly the US dollar, will largely influence Bitcoin‘s next move. Traders need to be aware of order book dynamics, potential manipulation, and the influence of overall market sentiment. While opportunities may exist for a bullish run, significant caution is warranted in the present climate.

Bitcoin market data. Source: Skew/X
Bitcoin market data. Source: Skew/X
Sarah Walker
Sarah Walker
Sarah Walker is an educator dedicated to demystifying cryptocurrency for beginners. Her clear and concise guides, glossaries, and tutorials empower newcomers to confidently engage with the crypto space.

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