Bitcoin (BTC) may be nearing a market bottom as reports suggest former U.S. President Donald Trump could soften his stance on reciprocal tariffs—a move that could ease global trade tensions and boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Key Insights:
- Macro Tailwinds for Bitcoin
- A potential Trump policy shift could reduce trade war risks, weakening the U.S. dollar (DXY) and benefiting BTC as an inflation hedge.
- Historically, Bitcoin rallies when trade tensions ease (e.g., 2019-2020 tariff truce saw BTC surge 200%).
- Technical Signals
- RSI Divergence: Daily RSI shows bullish divergence despite price drops, signaling weakening selling pressure.
- On-Chain Support: Bitcoin’s Realized Price (58K)and∗∗200DMA∗∗(58K)and∗∗200DMA∗∗(56K) now act as strong demand zones.
- Market Sentiment Shift
- Open Interest in BTC futures has reset to February 2024 levels, reducing leverage risk.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows this week after a 3-week outflow streak.
Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Case (Soft Tariffs + ETF Revival)
- BTC reclaims 60K→Targets60K→Targets65K (June high).
- Altcoins follow with ETH leading (S-1 approval hopes).
⚠️ Risk: Delayed Policy Clarity
- If Trump maintains hardline rhetoric, BTC could retest $53K (March low).
Trader Takeaways:
- Watch DXY & U.S. Treasury yields for macro confirmation.
- A daily close above $59.5K could confirm reversal.
- Accumulation opportunity? Long-term holders are buying at current levels.
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