Bitcoin‘s Deja Vu: A Bear Market Rally in Disguise?
Bitcoin‘s recent price action has sparked both excitement and apprehension within the crypto community. While the digital asset has enjoyed a 21% surge since November, mirroring a similar pattern observed during the 2022 bear market, analysts are urging caution. The prevailing question is: are we witnessing a genuine recovery, or simply a temporary ‘bear market rally‘ before further declines?
The 365-Day Moving Average: A Critical Indicator
The core of the concern lies in Bitcoin‘s relationship with its 365-day moving average (MA). According to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin‘s ability to reclaim this key level is crucial. The report highlights that a failure to do so could signal the continuation of a bear market, much like the pattern seen in 2022. The 2022 instance saw a decline after crossing below the 365-day MA, followed by a rally that ultimately failed to hold above the critical resistance.
The $101,000 Level: A Crucial Battleground
The price region around $101,000 has become a critical point of focus. The 365-day MA currently sits near this level, creating a significant resistance zone. Clearing this hurdle would be a bullish signal, while a rejection could reinforce the bearish narrative. This level is also home to multiple resistance hurdles, adding to its importance in the coming weeks. The ability of Bitcoin to break through this level or not will be an important indicator of the short-term trend.
Exchange Inflows: A Warning Sign?
Further fueling the bearish sentiment is the recent uptick in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. CryptoQuant observed a surge in exchange inflows, reaching levels not seen since November 2025. This increase suggests escalating selling pressure, as investors may be looking to cash out their holdings. The report highlighted that higher inflows to exchanges can often precede price drops.
Comparing 2022 and 2026: Lessons from the Past
The comparison to 2022 is particularly insightful. During that period, many believed the bear market was over, only to see prices decline further. The sentiment back then was strikingly similar to what we are witnessing today. CryptoQuant suggests that fundamental and technical indicators point toward the possibility of a prolonged bear market.
Potential Implications and Outlook
This analysis does not constitute investment advice. However, it underscores the importance of exercising prudence and conducting thorough research before making any investment decisions. The interplay between price action, moving averages, and exchange flows is critical in understanding Bitcoin‘s trajectory. While a 21% gain is encouraging, it might be too early to proclaim the end of the bear market. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can overcome the $101,000 resistance and solidify its position in a bull run, or if we will see a continuation of the bear market trend.
